Forecast of the impact of quality of life on the migration situation in Russian regions

   The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of changes in the quality of life parameters on migration behavior and to form a relevant forecast.

   To achieve this goal, the author used the methods of retrospective analysis, grouping, regression analysis, and scenario modeling. The retrospective data analysis allowed us to identify interrelationship of these indicators, but the statistical estimates quality required additional research, during which the entire population of Russian regions has been divided into four groups. For each of the groups a separate regression equation describing interrelationship of migration growth rate value and a comprehensive assessment of regional quality of life has been constructed. The quality characteristics of the obtained equations has confirmed the possibility of their implementation to create a forecast of changes in the indicators. A scenario forecast of changes in the values of the quality of life indicator in Russian regions up to 2025 has been formed. On the basis of the obtained forecast the corresponding values of migration growth coefficients have been calculated. The realization of one or another scenario has a different impact on the migration attractiveness of the regions. This is due to different sensitivity to changes in quality of life. At the same time, high sensitivity of the first group regions not only gives them advantages when the situation improves, but also creates additional risks in case of its deterioration. Three scenarios of the situation development have been considered. According to the first one, by 2025 the migration population growth process will improve in 33 constituent entities of the Russian Federation compared to the level of 2021, with the second – in 34, with the third – in 28. Obtaining a forecast of the regional population size is an integral part of analyzing the impact of changes in the quality of life parameters on the dynamics of the country’s settlement system, in particular for calculating the above indicators of concentration and unevenness of settlement.

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