Strategic foresight of staffing needs of innovative development of socio-economic systems

The research has been conducted in order to develop theoretical and methodological approaches to forecasting the future needs of the innovative economy in personnel to ensure the demand for formed human resources capacity. Development of basic techniques and instruments of calculation of need of innovative economy for highly qualified personnel on long-term and medium-term prospects has been based on such methodological approaches as system, activity and competence-based approaches, situational approach, methodology of the interactive, understanding and interpretive sociology, methodology of synergy, network thinking and social management, methodology of the modal analysis. A number of methodological problems of the existing systems of providing innovative economy in a personnel has been revealed, described and systematized: the forecast of balance of a labor resources does not consider changes of working conditions, modernization of production assets and new technologies; planning of target figures of enrollment of students for master programs is performed in a separation from real personnel requirements; lack of criteria system of detection of competence-based requirements of innovative economy; the imminent need of transition from scenario approach of forecasting of needs of economy for professional staff to approach “a threefold spiral”. The article proposes a methodological approach to forecasting the staffing needs of the innovative economy, which makes a provision for creating strategic long-term and mid-term forecasts and their annual adjustment at the operating level using the technologies of strategic foresight. The decomposition has been carried out by the types of forecasts for such characteristics as: level of regulation, purpose, key definitions, methods and approaches, factors, types of information, tools for providing staffing needs at each level, the main results. Such approach will allow to reduce the state costs for staff coaching and to prevent “combustion” of competences unclaimed by future labor market. The model of interaction of the labor market and the sphere of professional education, based on a strategic foresight of personnel requirements, has been designed to provide the independent, reasonable professional choice of youth today for satisfaction and social mobility of the population in future. The implementation of the proposed approach will allow to increase the quality of forecasts of personnel needs of the innovative economy and to create the basis for scientifically sound regulation of the development of general, professional and additional education at the federal and regional levels. This, in turn, will contribute to achieve maximum compliance between the personnel needs of the innovative economy and its formed resource potential.

1. Federal’nyi zakon ot 28.06.2014 №172-FZ (red. ot 28.06.2014) “O strategicheskom planirovanii v Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Federal law dated July 29, 2004 (Ed. of 28.06.2014) No. 98- FZ “About strategic planning in the Russian Federation”]. Available at: http://www.consultant.ru (accessed 15.01.2019).

2. Postanovlenie Pravitel’stva Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 10.02.2014 g. № 92 (red. ot 29.11.2018) “Ob utverzhdenii Pravil uchastiya ob”edinenii rabotodatelei v monitoringe i prognozirovanii potrebnostei ekonomiki v kvalifitsirovannykh kadrakh, a takzhe v razrabotke i realizatsii gosudarstvennoi politiki v oblasti srednego professional’nogo obrazovaniya i vysshego obrazovaniya” [Resolution of the Russian Federation Government dated February 10, 2014, No. 92 (Ed. of 29.11.2018) “About the approval of Rules of participation of employer associations in monitoring and forecasting of economy needs for qualified personnel and also in development and realization of state policy in the field of secondary professional education and the higher education”]. Available at: http://www.consultant.ru (accessed 29.01.2019).

3. Prikaz Mintruda Rossii № 407, Minobrnauki Rossii № 641 ot 30.06.2015 “Ob utverzhdenii Polozheniya o sisteme srednesrochnogo i dolgosrochnogo prognozirovaniya zanyatosti naseleniya v tselyakh planirovaniya potrebnostei v podgotovke kadrov v obrazovatel’nykh organizatsiyakh, realizuyushchikh obrazovatel’nye programmy srednego professional’nogo i (ili) vysshego obrazovaniya za schet byudzhetnykh assignovanii federal’nogo byudzheta, i metodiki rascheta na srednesrochnuyu i dolgosrochnuyu perspektivu potrebnosti sub”ektov Rossiiskoi Federatsii, otraslei ekonomiki i krupneishikh rabotodatelei v professional’nykh kadrakh” [The order of Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation No. 641 dated June, 30, 2015, No. 407 “About the adoption of the Provision on the system of medium-term and long-term forecasting of employment of the population for planning of needs for training in the educational organizations implementing educational programs of secondary professional and (or) higher education within budgetary appropriations of the federal budget, both a calculation procedure for a medium and long-term outlook of need of territorial subjects of the Russian Federation, branches of economy and the largest employers in professional staff”]. Available at: http://www.consultant.ru (accessed 15.01.2019).

4. Prikaz Ministerstva zdravookhraneniya i sotsial’nogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 29.02.2012 g. № 178n “Ob utverzhdenii metodiki razrabotki prognoza balansa trudovykh resursov” [Order of the Minister of Health of the Russian Federation No. 178n dated February 29, 2012, “About the statement of a technique of development of the forecast of balance of a manpower”]. Available at: https://base.garant.ru/70144878/ (accessed 17.01.2019).

5. “Strategiya razvitiya sistemy podgotovki rabochikh kadrov i formirovaniya prikladnykh kvalifikatsii v Rossiiskoi Federatsii do 2020 g.” (odobreno Kollegiei Minobrnauki Rossii, protokol ot 18.06.2013 № PK-5vn) [The strategy of development for training system of personnel and formation of application-oriented qualifications in the Russian Federation till 2020, dated 18, June 2013]. Available at: http://www.consultant.ru (accessed 15.01.2019).

6. Analiz vzaimodeistviya sistemy srednego professional’nogo obrazovaniya i rabotodatelei vysokotekhnologichnykh sektorov ekonomiki. Informatsionnyi byulleten’. Moskwa: Natsional’nyi issledovatel’skii universitet «Vysshaya shkola ekonomiki» [Information Bulletin “Analysis of interaction of secondary professional education system and hi-tech sectors of economy employers”], HSE, Russia, 2018, no. 2 (122), 52 p.

7. Vasil’eva, Z. A. Problemy modelirovaniya kadrovoi potrebnosti regional’noi ekonomiki [The modeling problems of recruitment needs of regional economy]. Vestnik TGEU [Bulletin of the Pacific State Economic University], 2012, no. 4, pp. 46−57. (In Russian).

8. Gurtov, V. A., Pitukhin E. A., Serova L. M. Modelirovanie potrebnostei ekonomiki v kadrakh s professional’nym obrazovaniem. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Modulation of the economy’s needs in cadres with vocational education]. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Problems of forecasting], 2007, no 6 (105), pp. 91−108. (In Russian).

9. World Bank. Russia Economic Report, 2017, No. 38: From Recession to Recovery. Moscow: World Bank Group. Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/28930/121802RU.pdf?sequence=8 (accessed 17.01.2019).

10. Dubovskii S. V. Vychislitel’nye eksperimenty s makromodel’yu nestatsionarnoi rossiiskoi ekonomiki. Modelirovanie sotsial’no-politicheskoi i ekonomicheskoi dinamiki [Computational experiments with macromodel of non-stationary Russian economy. Modeling of socio-political and economic dynamics], Moscow: RGSU, 2004, 224 p.

11. Kiselev A. F., Savel’ev A. Ya., Sazonov B. A. Obrazovatel’nyi potentsial Rossii: sostoyanie i razvitie [Educational potential of Russia: state and development], MGUP, 2004, 132 p.

12. Korovkin A. G. Dinamika zanyatosti i rynka truda [The dynamics of employment and the labor market]. Voprosy makroekonomicheskogo analiza i prognozirovaniya [Macroeconomic analysis and forecasting]. Moscow: MAKS Press, 2001, 320 p.

13. Otsenka sistemy podgotovki inzhenerno-tekhnicheskikh kadrov: materialy kompleksnogo issledovaniya potrebnostei krupneishikh regional’nykh rabotodatelei [Assessment of preparation of technical specialists system: materials of a complex research of largest regional employers needs]. Pod obshch. red. L. N. Bannikovoi – Ekaterinburg: UrFU, 2016. OOO «Izdatel’skii Dom «Azhur», 2016, 126 p.

14. Roshchin S. Yu, Rudakov V. N. Sovmeshchenie ucheby i raboty studentami rossiiskikh vuzov [Combining Work and Study by Russian Higher Education Institution Students]. Voprosy obrazovaniya [Journal of Educational Studies], 2014, no. 2, pp. 152−179. (In Russian).

15. Sigova S. V., Serebryakov A. G., Luksha P. О. Formirovanie perechnya vostrebovannykh kompetentsii: pervyi opyt Rossii [Creating the list of competences in demand: first russian experience]. Nepreryvnoe obrazovanie: XXI vek [Quarterly scientific online journal “Lifelong learning: XXI century”], Russia, 2013, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 61−71. (In Russian).

16. Stanovlenie v Rossii nepreryvnogo obrazovaniya: analiz na osnove rezul’tatov obshcherossiiskikh oprosov vzroslogo naseleniya strany. Informatsionnyi byulleten’ [Formation continuous education in Russia: the analysis on the basis of results of the all-Russian polls of adult population of the country], Moscow: HSE, Russia, 2017, no. 5 (104), 28 p.

17. Keynes J. M. Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren (1930) Scanned from John Maynard Keynes, Essays in Persuasion, New York: W. W. Norton&Co., 1963, pp. 358−373.

18. Katz F. and Margo R. A. Technical change and the relative demand for skilled labor: The United States in historical perspective lawrence. NBER Working Paper. February, 2013, no. 18 752.

19. Monitoring ekonomiki obrazovaniya [Education Economics Monitoring]. Available at: https://memo.hse.ru (accessed 01.02.2019).

20. Sait Federal’noi sluzhby statistiki [Website of the Federal Statistics Service]. Available at: https://gks.ru (accessed 01.02.2019).