Political development in the time of the changing world order: patterns and prospects.

The article studies cyclical patterns in international political development and in the transformation of the world order. Drawing on a cyclical–wave methodology, it argues that major shifts in the world order coincide with the upward phases of Kondratieff long waves. This relationship is attributed to the fact that such phases are marked by profound technological, institutional and geopolitical transformations, which alter the balance of power in the international system and precipitate successive reconfigurations of global order.

The analysis suggests that the period from the 2020s to the early 2040s — corresponding to the upward phase of the sixth Kondratieff cycle — is characterized by a systemically driven transformation of the international political system and a transition towards the new, polycentric world order. As in previous historical transitions, this shift is accompanied by domestic political turbulence, international conflicts and a rebalancing of influence at the global level, driven by the rise of new global and regional centers of power. The study projects that between 2026 and 2040 the United States will initially consolidate and subsequently experience a partial erosion of its position; that the political influence of the United Kingdom and EU member states will diminish; and that new “rising” global powers, notably China and India — will continue to strengthen, alongside emerging regional centers such as Australia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and South Africa.

On the basis of a comparative analysis of leading states’ policies, the article identifies strategic priorities for Russia’s political development. These include securing substantive political and technological sovereignty; preserving continuity and an evolutionary trajectory of political development; advancing strategic foresight and long-term policy design in both domestic and foreign affairs; introducing social and political innovations in accordance with Russia’s institutional configuration and societal values; reducing inter- and intra-agency barriers in order to accelerate development; and enhancing communication and interaction between elite and mass social groups.

1. Acharya, A. (2014). The end of American world order. Cambridge: Polity Press.

2. Akaev, A., Pantin, V. (2014). Technological innovations and future shifts in international politics. International Studies Quarterly, 58(4), 867–872. (In Russian).

3. Baranovsky, V.G. (2025). On the formation of a new world order. Polis. Political Studies, 1, 7–23. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2025.01.02

4. Couture, S., Toupin, S. (2019). What does the notion of “sovereignty” mean when referring to the digital? New Media & Society, 21(10), 2305–2322. https://doi.org/10.1177/1461444819865984.

5. Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for dealing with the changing world order: Why nations succeed and fail. New York: Avid Reader Press. Simon & Schuster, 576.

6. Ferguson, N. (2014). The great degeneration: How institutes decay and economies die. London: Penguin Books, 192.

7. Grinin, L.E. (2016). The world order in the past, present, and future. History and Modernity, 1, 20–63. (In Russian).

8. Grinin, L.E., Korotayev, A.V., Tsirel, S.V. (2011). Cycles in development of modern world-system. Moscow: Librocom, 248. (In Russian).

9. Huntington, S.P. (1996). The clash of civilizations and the remaking of world order. New York: Simon & Schuster, 368.

10. Kennedy, P. The rise and fall of the great powers: Economic change and military conflict from 1500 to 2000. London: Vinter Books; 1989. 704 p.

11. Kondratieff, N.D. (1925). Long cycles of conjuncture. Problems of Conjuncture, 1(1), 28–79. (In Russian).

12. Kondratieff, N.D. (1989). Problems of economic dynamics. Moscow: Economics. (In Russian).

13. Modelski, G. (1987). Long cycles in world politics. London: Macmillan Press.

14. Modelski G., Thompson W.R. (1996). Leading sectors and world powers: The coevolution of global economics and politics. Columbia, SC: University of South California Press.

15. Nikitin, A.I. (2025). The global power of the future: renewal of strategic orientations of India. Polis. Political Studies, 1, 118–133. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2025.01.09

16. Pantin, V.I. (2025). Russia and the world order in 2025–2040: Evolutionary shifts and emerging reforms. Problems of National Strategy, 2, 58–75. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.52311/2079-3359_2025_2_58

17. Pantin, V.I., Lapkin, V.V. (2006). Philosophy of historical forecasting: the rhythms of history and the prospects for world development in the first half of the 21st century. Dubna: Phoenix-plus. (In Russian).

18. Pantin, V.I., Lapkin, V.V. (2014). Historical forecasting in the 21st century: Kondratieff cycles, evolutionary cycles and the prospects for world development. Dubna: Phoenix-plus. (In Russian).

19. Waltz, K.N. (1979). Theory of international politics. New York: McGraw-Hill.

20. Wang, G. (2004). The impact of globalization on state sovereignty. Chinese Journal of International Law, 3(2): 473–483. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.cjilaw.a000530