Slowing down and divergence in growth are the barriers to the modern global economy sustainability

   The factors and mechanisms of the dynamics of global economic growth at the present stage have been analyzed and summarized. Over the past decades, many determinants have increased uncertainty in the global economy development, affecting the decline in aggregate factor productivity through various channels.

   The purpose of the study is to assess the mechanisms of deceleration and divergence of global economic growth, which significantly limit sustainable social and economic development in the global economy, as well as to discuss scenarios and ways to prevent a slowdown in global growth.

   The challenges of this slowdown for the sustainability of the global economy have been discussed, and new growth trends that emerged in 2022-2024 have been systematized. An additional aspect of the study was the assessment of the negative risks of global economic growth in the future, related to the current concerns about ongoing inflation and recession. The mechanisms that determine the growth divergence and uncertainty have been identified, including using the example of the dynamics observed in individual countries and assessing economic policies implemented in these states (including in terms of countering inflation). Several scenarios of global economic growth for the medium term have been presented, suggesting the opportunities implementation to prevent a slowdown in growth. If growth slows down in the medium term, it will have a negative impact on income convergence between states, as it will become increasingly difficult for poor countries to catch up with rich ones. There are distributional consequences of a slowdown in growth in the medium term for global inequality and wellfare.

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